Tuesday, September 30, 2008

UPDATE

UPDATE FOR 30SEPTEMBER


Copper tumbled to an 18-month low, heading for its worst

quarter on record, on concern that a spreading financial crisis

will stifle global growth and slash metals demand.


Lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives yesterday

rejected a $700 billion financial rescue plan aimed at loosening

clogged credit markets. The vote eroded investor confidence and

borrowing costs jumped. Copper has plunged 26 percent this quarter,

the biggest drop since at least 1989, as bank failures and a credit

crunch crimped global growth, curbing demand.


``The markets are trying to figure out what all this means for the

economy and the outlook for demand,'' said Ron Goodis, a futures-trading

director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey.

``Copper will probably continue to fall down this treacherous path

because of the economic crisis.''


Copper futures for December delivery sank 3.8 cents, or 1.3 percent,

to $2.8685 a pound at 11:55 a.m. on the Comex division of the

New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the metal touched $2.765, the

lowest since March 12, 2007.


This quarter's drop is the first for the metal this year. Copper has

declined 15 percent in September, the largest monthly decline since


June 1996. The losses follow the metal's 28 percent surge in the

first half of the year, touching a record $4.2605 a pound on May 5.


``Everything for copper is pointing down right now,'' Goodis said.

``Sentiment in this market has really swung around. We saw a great

performance earlier, and now it's made a huge run down. Copper has

really shown that there is no support left for it in this market.''

Housing Slump
Copper has tumbled as the U.S. housing slump has deepened. Builders

are the biggest users of the metal, accounting for about 46 percent of

demand, according to the Copper Development Association.


Home prices in 20 U.S. cities dropped 16 percent in July, the fastest

pace on record, signaling the worst housing recession in a generation

hadn't found a bottom even before the failure of banks and the

government takeover of mortgage financiers Freddie Mac and

Fannie Mae this month, an industry report showed today.


``The outlook for base metals does not look promising going forward,'

' Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global in Darien, Connecticut, said

today in a report. A global ``synchronized slowdown'' will not be

``a conducive backdrop for commodities to thrive in, and we suspect that

we could see much lower prices.''


On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three

months dropped $70, or 1.1 percent, to $6,370 a metric ton ($2.89 a pound).


Copper will average $5,000 a metric ton in the first quarter and


betting against the metal is one of the lowest-risk trades in

commodities right now, Barclays Capital said.


Demand for the metal including in China, the world's largest

consumer, is ``very soft,'' London-based Barclays analyst

Kevin Norrish said today in a report.

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